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Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol talks Starbucks turnaround after its Investor Day

Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol talks Starbucks turnaround after its Investor Day

A percolating rebound at long last for Starbucks, with a side of a fresh concern.

Starbucks investors have been waiting for clear signs of a turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol. The former Chipotle (CMG) CEO and top Yum! Brands (YUM) marketing mind brewed up several of those signs this week.

On Wednesday, the company reported same-store sales growth in the US in the most recent quarter on the back of the new protein coffee, better food offerings, and quicker lines. Strong growth in China emerged, finally.

And at a New York City investor day on Thursday, Starbucks signaled it could keep the turnaround on track through new drinks (see the new matcha line), new food to attract more afternoon visits, an upgraded rewards program, and remodeled restaurants that feature better seating.

All in a week’s work for Niccol.

“[The turnaround] I think it really is a combination of a couple things,” Niccol told Yahoo Finance at our New York City headquarters on Friday. Niccol pointed to improved ordering times and tighter execution by store employees as two of the main ingredients.

Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol tastes the company’s new Starbucks 1971 Dark Roast during the Starbucks Investor Day event in New York City, U.S., Jan. 29, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid · REUTERS / Reuters

This comes after a new filing this week saying Niccol must now use Starbucks’ private aircraft for all travel to enhance his security. An independent security review identified “credible” risks to Niccol that warrant increased protection, pointing to his high-profile position, increased media exposure, and the broader threat environment.

Under Starbucks’ previous policy, Niccol’s personal, non-commuting flights were limited to $250,000 annually.

“That’s probably something I underestimated coming in,” Niccol said of the measures. “You know, I knew it was a global iconic brand, I appreciate that people are passionate about our brand, but there are also things that I just didn’t expect. You wouldn’t think you would need the additional security.”

At its Investor Day, Starbucks:

  • Committed to adding 25,000 seats to Starbucks US stores by fiscal year-end.

  • Focused on creating a new “peak” afternoon business supported by new energy drinks and wraps.

  • Said its revised rewards program launches March 10 and offers three membership levels — Green, Gold, and Reserve. Each level features different membership benefits.

  • Said it sees the opportunity to add 5,000 more US Starbucks stores over time.

  • Said it sees the opportunity to double international store footprint, mostly by way of growth in China.

  • Said it expects to remove $2 billion in expenses over the next two years.

  • Issued fiscal year 2028 earnings per share guidance of $3.35-$4.00 (with the high-end in line with analyst estimates). The company is currently in fiscal year 2026.

Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull, who has a Buy rating and $105 price target, said: “We believe Starbucks provided a credible roadmap at its Investor Day, targeting 5%+ revenue growth and an EBIT margin of 13.5%-15.0% by FY28. To drive this growth, the company is deploying a high-velocity innovation ‘flywheel’ and leveraging global marketing campaigns…

“Simultaneously, the company is simplifying operational complexity for partners while improving order throughput via the proprietary Mastrena III espresso machine (coming in FY27), which halves production time, and the ‘Grow Report,’ a five-shot scoring system that empowers store-level accountability. We believe the combination of cultural re-insertion and tech-led operational improvements will successfully convert improving brand affinity into incremental transaction growth and margin expansion.”

Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo, who has an Outperform rating and $100 price target, said: “We believe that the $3.35 to $4 FY28 EPS is largely beatable as management called out that reaching the high-end of guidance would require Starbucks to consistently reach 3% comp and realizing all the $2B gross savings (minus the reinvestments) — conditions that could easily be met by Starbucks focusing on rollout of Green Apron model, successfully innovating, reimagining the afternoon, reinviting consumers to the coffeehouses and leaning on the digital flywheel.

“We were particularly pleased that the guidance for contemplates below-inflation pricing, which we think will help Starbucks expand its value positioning over time. Moreover, the SSSG [same-store sales growth] assumes minimal mix benefit, so this gives us confidence that Starbucks could surpass its goals, as we believe that the expansion of the protein platform and greater food attachment alone could bring 6-9% higher check growth in 2-3 years. With margins that could reach 15% in FY28 with minimal comp growth (1-2%) and flowthrough of marginal dollars that can (over time) grow above 60% we felt really positive about the margin generation potential of the business.”

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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